My favorite line of late at the table has been "I feel like I work the laundromat, with as much folding as I'm doing."
That got a chuckle from my bud NY Mike on Saturday, and it was true. I maybe saw 18% of the flops available to me, releasing hands ranging from A-9 on the low end to 77 on the high end. Never saw an AK, and had AQ once--more on that in a minute.
Didn't really have tremendous starting hands (had some, but not a ton), made some nice plays at some pots with less than the nuts, your basic rollercoaster of emotions night. Did manage to have KK against a player's all in, when they had 88 (still waiting for my bounty, Daxamillion). Doubled up on AA, and then survived another all in when my A-9 (short stacked) out ran A-J.
Make it to 4-handed play, blinds are 600-1200, 200 ante. I am the short stack (with 6000 total), in the SB, I pick up As-Qc. UTG folds, button limps, I shove, BB folds. Button thinks about it, and then says, "I am suited."
I instantly think he has K-x or even A-x. He cuts out the 4800 more to call, and drops it in. He then opens up 4c-3c.
Suffice to say, he hit a 4, and busted me.
I am still trying to see the logic in that call. The only saving grace to his call, was he was the chip leader. Still, do you risk doubling up another play with 4-high in a 4 handed game? I don't know. I don't think I could make that kind of a call there.
I was so perturbed by it, that when I woke up Sunday, I took a deck of cards, pulled out the As-Qc and the 4c-3c, set them aside, shuffled the stub, removed the top 4 cards (4 random unseen cards representing the hands that were folded by the BB and UTG players), and ran out flops. I did this 20 times. It ended up that AQ won 11 of the 20 hands. According to Cardplayer.com's calculator, I am a 60%-38% favorite, pre-flop.
These thing happen, I am getting better at fading the beats (it's not lasting as long anymore, anyway). I feel quite good about my play on Saturday night--it was a nice feeling after a rough week of play in Vegas.
Hope to get out Wednesday and sit again, and perhaps this coming Sunday as well. Have to see if Mrs. Chipstack is up for it.
~M
5 comments:
The button is getting the correct odds to call even if your range is any pair or any two broadway cards, which is top 18% of hands.
The pot is offering him close to 2:1. Even if your range is only the top 15% of hands, it's still mathematically good.
If you don't hold a pair, the only hands he's got a math problem with are ones that have him dominated like an A4. Even then, he's only a 2.4:1 dog.
In this case, he's a 1.6:1 dog and the pot is laying him better than 1.9:1. From a pure math POV, it's a good call.
From a tourney strategy POV, it may be a bit loose but that depends on his chipstack. If he's putting in less than <20% of his stack and he has a solid read, he's probably making the correct play.
I see the math side of it, and running the hands (the 20 hand sample is small, true, but it does shed some light on the justification aspect). Just sucks to lose out to 4 high v. AQ off with your tourney life at stake.
AQo is simply 53o in nicer clothes. :D
I like that!
Sorry you didn't recap Wednesday's titl-a-whirl extravaganza.
WHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
BV
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